USD/JPY: Consolidate, sell rallies – OCBC

USD/JPY fell, tracking the moves in UST yields, post Fed official Waller’s comments. Pair was last at 149.81 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

BoJ is likely to proceed with another hike

“Bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI shows signs of turning higher from near oversold conditions. Rebound risks not ruled out in the near term. Resistance at 151.20, 152 (200 DMA), 153.30/70 levels (61.8% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low, 21DMA). Support at 149.50, 149 levels (100 DMA). Broader bias remains to lean against strength.”

“Price-related data (Tokyo CPI, PPI, etc.), labour market development (jobless rate easing, job-to-applicant ratio increasing, etc.), wage growth expectations (PM Ishiba and trade unions calling for another 5-6% wage increase at shunto wage negotiations for 2025) and Ueda's recent comments on Nikkei over the weekend continue to reinforce the view that BoJ is likely to proceed with another hike, sooner rather than later.”

“But near term, in light of US data risks, pair may consolidate for now.”