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31 Mar 2015
SNB still in the spotlight regarding QE – JP Morgan
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analyst at JP Morgan assessed the EUR/CHF trade in light of the possibility of the SNB adopting some form of QE.
Key Quotes
“We are tempted to re-sell EUR/CHF given our long-held skepticism that that SNB could or would establish a new floor for the cross, but it’s safer to wait for clarification from the sight deposit data in the next week or two whether the SNB is intervening or not below the 1.05 level that many now regard as the de-facto soft floor”.
“We are also wary given the chatter that the SNB is considering a programme of foreign QE (a prospect raised by the IMF and not yet dismissed by the SNB), even though we fail to see why a pre-announced and presumably limited programme of foreign QE should be any more successful in weakening the franc than its previous commitment to unlimited FX intervention”.
“Rebranding FX intervention as foreign-QE doesn’t lessen the balance sheet constraints that forced the SNB to abandon intervention in the first place”.
Key Quotes
“We are tempted to re-sell EUR/CHF given our long-held skepticism that that SNB could or would establish a new floor for the cross, but it’s safer to wait for clarification from the sight deposit data in the next week or two whether the SNB is intervening or not below the 1.05 level that many now regard as the de-facto soft floor”.
“We are also wary given the chatter that the SNB is considering a programme of foreign QE (a prospect raised by the IMF and not yet dismissed by the SNB), even though we fail to see why a pre-announced and presumably limited programme of foreign QE should be any more successful in weakening the franc than its previous commitment to unlimited FX intervention”.
“Rebranding FX intervention as foreign-QE doesn’t lessen the balance sheet constraints that forced the SNB to abandon intervention in the first place”.