US NFP forecast at 220k, to support dovish sentiments – TDS

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jacqui Douglas, Chief European Macro Strategist at TD Securities, anticipate the US NFP to slowdown and print a lower than consensus figure at 220k.

Key Quotes

“Consensus is looking for a deceleration in job growth from the 295K rate in Feb to around 250K in March, although that consensus figure may shift lower still after the poor ADP report earlier this week.”

“The ADP and other survey data have confirmed our view that the risks to the headline lie to the downside, and we look for a steeper slowdown to 220K.”

“Markets will pay just as much attention to the unemployment rate and wage growth, and there we look for the u-rate to retrace a bit higher to 5.6% after the unexpectedly large push down to 5.5% in Feb, and for wage growth to come in at a middling 0.2% M/M pace after 3 months of volatility.”

“So overall the payrolls report should support the more dovish US sentiment that we saw out of the last FOMC meeting.”