UK: Strengthening labour market raise hopes of early rate hike from BoE - Nomura

FXStreet (Delhi) – Philip Rush, Research Analyst at Nomura, suggests that the recent headline statistics from the latest labour market report of UK were mostly better than expected and has further reignited the debate that BoE should go ahead with an early rate hike.

Key Quotes

“The LFS unemployment rate reassuringly returned to falls a month earlier than we expected, despite depressing cohort effects. Wages picked up by more than forecast, thereby indicating translation into inflationary pressure.”

“Jobless claims disappointed with a rise, but correlation with revisions to June make that likely to be revised better soon, as well as leading to further falls ahead.”

“We continue to expect further strengthening of the labour market, albeit slowed by structural constraints, thereby generating pressure for the BoE to hike.”

“The decline in the LFS unemployment rate to 5.5% occurred a month earlier than we expected, but the realisation of a return to the declining trend makes it more reassuring than that sounds.”

“So it still sends a hawkish signal on spare capacity, in our view. A rise in pay growth helps corroborate this message by showing a translation into the price of labour.”