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14 Dec 2015
US November retail sales: Better than good enough for a Dec rate hike - ING
FXStreet (Delhi) - Rob Carnell, Research Analyst at ING, suggests that the US retail sales for November, along with this week’s November CPI release, are perhaps the only data points ahead of the 16 Dec FOMC meeting that could, if atrocious, have caused a re-think about what is looking like a probable 25bp hike.
Key Quotes
“With a 0.2%mom headline sales increase, but stronger than expected core series (0.4% ex autos, 0.5% ex autos and gas, and 0.6%mom for the control group), it is clearly far from atrocious. One down, one to go.”
“Markets are already pricing in a very high chance of a hike at next week’s meeting, so we anticipate that impacts on the USD, and bond yields will be minor, even though the result was on balance a little better than expected. But it was given an extra nudge in the same direction by slightly stronger November PPI data (0.3%mom for final demand goods), perhaps an indicator of what we might expect at next week’s CPI release too.”
Key Quotes
“With a 0.2%mom headline sales increase, but stronger than expected core series (0.4% ex autos, 0.5% ex autos and gas, and 0.6%mom for the control group), it is clearly far from atrocious. One down, one to go.”
“Markets are already pricing in a very high chance of a hike at next week’s meeting, so we anticipate that impacts on the USD, and bond yields will be minor, even though the result was on balance a little better than expected. But it was given an extra nudge in the same direction by slightly stronger November PPI data (0.3%mom for final demand goods), perhaps an indicator of what we might expect at next week’s CPI release too.”