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5 Feb 2016
Nonfarm payrolls preview - Nomura
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Nomura offered a preview for tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls data.
Key Quotes:
"Employment report: December produced a strong jobs report, with nonfarm payrolls growth near 300k, and the unemployment rate remaining low at 5.0%. Incoming data on labor markets in January point to job growth near-usual trend on the month. Weather in the first half of January was warmer than usual and the winter storm that affected the Northeast occurred after the BLS payroll survey reference week, so we are unlikely to see its effects on January’s payrolls numbers."
"Taking these together, we forecast that private payrolls added a net new 180k workers (Consensus: 180k), with a 5k increase in government workers, implying that total nonfarm payrolls will gain 185k jobs (Consensus: 190k)."
"We forecast that manufacturing payrolls declined by 5k in January (Consensus: -2k), as regional manufacturing surveys suggest that activity in the sector remained sluggish on the month. We expect the unemployment rate to tick down by 0.1pp to 4.9% (Consensus: 5.0%). Last, we expect average hourly earnings to grow by a solid +0.31% m-o-m (+2.25% y-o-y) (Consensus: 0.3% m-o-m), providing some payback from the weakness in the prior month, which was likely due to a calendar quirk."
Key Quotes:
"Employment report: December produced a strong jobs report, with nonfarm payrolls growth near 300k, and the unemployment rate remaining low at 5.0%. Incoming data on labor markets in January point to job growth near-usual trend on the month. Weather in the first half of January was warmer than usual and the winter storm that affected the Northeast occurred after the BLS payroll survey reference week, so we are unlikely to see its effects on January’s payrolls numbers."
"Taking these together, we forecast that private payrolls added a net new 180k workers (Consensus: 180k), with a 5k increase in government workers, implying that total nonfarm payrolls will gain 185k jobs (Consensus: 190k)."
"We forecast that manufacturing payrolls declined by 5k in January (Consensus: -2k), as regional manufacturing surveys suggest that activity in the sector remained sluggish on the month. We expect the unemployment rate to tick down by 0.1pp to 4.9% (Consensus: 5.0%). Last, we expect average hourly earnings to grow by a solid +0.31% m-o-m (+2.25% y-o-y) (Consensus: 0.3% m-o-m), providing some payback from the weakness in the prior month, which was likely due to a calendar quirk."