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5 Feb 2016
Day ahead is a busy end to the week - Westpac
FXStreet - Analysts at Westpac explained that the Asian data calendar is quite busy ahead of the lunar new year holidays.
Key Quotes:
"Today we see Jan CPI in Taiwan and Philippines, Malaysian Dec trade data and Indonesia’s Q4 GDP. Indonesia’s GDP is not seasonally adjusted so we should see the usual seasonal fall in Q4 (f/c -1.9%) on lower agricultural output. But the y/y rate is seen a touch stronger, at 4.8%.the most market-sensitive Asian data is due for release on Sunday: China’s Jan FX reserves."
"The month saw the yuan slump early before returning to very tight ranges against USD. The data will reveal how expensive it was for the PBoC to restore stability. The -$107.9bn slide in reserves in Dec was the largest monthly fall in $ terms. Reserves were $3330bn in Dec. Bloomberg’s survey includes only 10 responses and is very scattered, from -$80bn to -$140bn. A fall in the area of say -$95bn to $110bn should be taken reasonably calmly by those markets that are open on Monday morning (including AUD). Something in this range seems fair to us but we see risks of a surprise tilted towards a record-breaking fall, -$120bn or more."
"Markets seem so determined to price out the risk of a Fed rate hike any time soon that it is hard to imagine a Jan US employment outcome strong enough to reignite pricing for Mar or Jun. Even after the US dollar’s sharp fall in recent days, there still seems to be greater scope for a USD fall on a weak reading than for a rally on a strong outcome. Consensus is 190k after the booming 292k in Dec. Annual benchmark revisions could muddy the waters considerably. The unemployment rate should hold at 5.0%.
Canada’s Jan employment report is released at the same time (as is the US Dec trade balance). Canadian unemployment is expected to hold at 7.1%, with jobs up 6k after a decent +22.8k in Dec."
Key Quotes:
"Today we see Jan CPI in Taiwan and Philippines, Malaysian Dec trade data and Indonesia’s Q4 GDP. Indonesia’s GDP is not seasonally adjusted so we should see the usual seasonal fall in Q4 (f/c -1.9%) on lower agricultural output. But the y/y rate is seen a touch stronger, at 4.8%.the most market-sensitive Asian data is due for release on Sunday: China’s Jan FX reserves."
"The month saw the yuan slump early before returning to very tight ranges against USD. The data will reveal how expensive it was for the PBoC to restore stability. The -$107.9bn slide in reserves in Dec was the largest monthly fall in $ terms. Reserves were $3330bn in Dec. Bloomberg’s survey includes only 10 responses and is very scattered, from -$80bn to -$140bn. A fall in the area of say -$95bn to $110bn should be taken reasonably calmly by those markets that are open on Monday morning (including AUD). Something in this range seems fair to us but we see risks of a surprise tilted towards a record-breaking fall, -$120bn or more."
"Markets seem so determined to price out the risk of a Fed rate hike any time soon that it is hard to imagine a Jan US employment outcome strong enough to reignite pricing for Mar or Jun. Even after the US dollar’s sharp fall in recent days, there still seems to be greater scope for a USD fall on a weak reading than for a rally on a strong outcome. Consensus is 190k after the booming 292k in Dec. Annual benchmark revisions could muddy the waters considerably. The unemployment rate should hold at 5.0%.
Canada’s Jan employment report is released at the same time (as is the US Dec trade balance). Canadian unemployment is expected to hold at 7.1%, with jobs up 6k after a decent +22.8k in Dec."