EUR/USD off highs, back near 1.1940 ahead of CPI

After briefly testing the 1.1950/55 band in early trade, EUR/USD has now receded to the 1.940 area ahead of the opening bell in Euroland.

EUR/USD attention to CPI, FOMC

The pair is trading within a narrow range at the beginning of the week ahead of the release of final CPI figures in the euro bloc for the month of August. The results should not be a market mover however, unless they come in as a surprise from the flash readings.

Furthermore, spot is seen sidelined ahead of the FOMC meeting due later in the week. Consensus among traders expect the Federal Reserve to keep rate unchaged at Wednesday’s meeting, while CME Group’s FedWatch tool sees the probability of such scenario at nearly 99% based on Fed Funds futures prices.

In the meantime, the pair is up for the third session in a row so far today, gaining over a cent since last week’s lows in the 1.1830 region, while the perspective remains constructive while above the 5-month support line, today at 1.1839.

On the positioning front, EUR speculative net longs have retreated to 4-week lows during the week ended on September 12, according to the latest CFTC report.

Data wise across the pond, TIC Flows and the NAHB index are only due.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is up 0.03% at 1.1944 and a break above 1.1995 (high Sep.13) would target 1.2041 (high Sep.11) and finally 1.2092 (2017 high Sep.6). On the flip side, the immediate support aligns at 1.1910 (10-day sma) followed by 1.1839 (5-month support line) and finally 1.1837 (low Sep.14).