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7 Mar 2014
Flash: 12 month USD/JPY 112.00 - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Strategists at Rabobank were looking into the USD and likely outcomes for USD/JPY.
Key Quotes:
“It is not just the ECB that would welcome an appreciating USD. The soft tone in the USD is also disappointing the market consensus for USD/JPY”.
“Following the sharp appreciation of USD/JPY into the final months of last year, the JPY has won back some ground. The better tone of the JPY can in part be attributable to a decline in speculation that the BoJ will further loosen monetary settings this year on the back of firmer CPI inflation data and signs of increased domestic consumption. That said, Japan’s economic position remains precarious”.
“The process of structural reform has been slow and consumption could drop heavily after the April consumption tax hike particularly if real wages fall. Even of the BoJ does not increase monetary policy stimulus further its target of increasing the monetary base by Y60 to Y70 trn per year is a huge commitment”.
“Insofar as easy monetary conditions are set to remain in place in Japan longer than any other developed world central bank we continue to expect that USD/JPY will rise medium-term”.
“We maintain our 12 mth forecast of USD/JPY112”.
Key Quotes:
“It is not just the ECB that would welcome an appreciating USD. The soft tone in the USD is also disappointing the market consensus for USD/JPY”.
“Following the sharp appreciation of USD/JPY into the final months of last year, the JPY has won back some ground. The better tone of the JPY can in part be attributable to a decline in speculation that the BoJ will further loosen monetary settings this year on the back of firmer CPI inflation data and signs of increased domestic consumption. That said, Japan’s economic position remains precarious”.
“The process of structural reform has been slow and consumption could drop heavily after the April consumption tax hike particularly if real wages fall. Even of the BoJ does not increase monetary policy stimulus further its target of increasing the monetary base by Y60 to Y70 trn per year is a huge commitment”.
“Insofar as easy monetary conditions are set to remain in place in Japan longer than any other developed world central bank we continue to expect that USD/JPY will rise medium-term”.
“We maintain our 12 mth forecast of USD/JPY112”.