US: Focus on ISM Manufacturing and construction spending – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura point out that the US construction spending fell 1.1% m-o-m in June, weighed on by an unusually large 11.0% m-o-m decline in spending on public educational structures.

Key Quotes

“This series could revert in July, adding some boost to overall construction spending. However, looking beyond the unusual decline in the public education category, private residential construction spending was somewhat soft in June, falling 0.5% m-o-m.”

“ISM manufacturing index: We expect the ISM manufacturing index to decline by 0.6 percentage points (pp) to 57.5 in August, a still-solid reading consistent with firm economic momentum, but likely reflecting continued trade concerns. Regional manufacturing surveys in August were somewhat divided, with increases in the manufacturing indices from the Dallas, Philly and Kansas City Feds, but declines in the Empire State and Richmond Fed surveys. Despite the mixed signals, we expect trade concerns to weigh on manufacturer sentiment in August.”

“Total vehicle sales: We expect vehicle sales to grow slightly in August to a pace of 16.8m saar from 16.7m saar in July. Sales have steadily trended lower after a transitory increase following the damage from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma in the late summer of 2017.”