Morten Lund, research analyst at Nordea Markets, believe that in the UK, Theresa May is still the favourite to win the no confidence vote.

Key Quotes

“First, when chairman of the European Research Group (hard line Tory Brexiteers), Jacob Rees-Mogg, also tried to reach the 48-letter threshold back in November, he failed. Thus, although many MPs disagreed or even disliked Theresa May’s deal back in November, several still voiced their support to the prime minister.”

“Second, looking at the alternatives, they are not as centric as Theresa May and therefore may not appeal to the soft Brexit / Remainers wing. Hence, the favourite candidates are former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, Environment Secretary Michael Gove and Home Secretary Sajid Javid – which all, except for the latter, are clear Brexiteers.”

“We think the risk of a no-deal would rise significantly if May loses the vote tonight, and especially if Boris Johnson or Dominic Raab wins the following leadership contest. Furthermore, we believe a new deal with the EU would most certainly require an extension of the 29 March deadline due to the time pressure, which in turn is only possible by a unanimous decision by the EU27.”