What’s key on the calendar today? - Rabobank

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank give us the break of the key data left for the day ahead.

Key Quotes:

“Today starts with the BoE’s minutes from its May meeting, which will try to explain in detail why the economic upturn is so fragile that it can’t handle a rate increase. We also see UK retail sales for April: consensus is for a 0.5% MoM print, equivalent to a 5.4% YoY reading, and ex-autos spending is seen up 0.4% MoM and 5.1% YoY. That is territory last seen in the heady last legs of the housing bubble in 2006-07, yet the BoE’s base rate still dates from the dark days of 2009”.

“The Eurozone releases consumer confidence for May, which is expected to edge up very slightly”.

“Following that we have a flood of Fed-speak (Dudley, Yellen, George, Kocherlakota) ahead of the FOMC minutes- where it too has to try to square an apparent firm belief in a stronger economy (Q1 is seen as an aberration) with an equal reluctance to act strongly on rates. Keeping with our title today, and current tapering aside, if this stance was a TV show it would no doubt be called “I Love QE, See” or “I Love Liquidity””.

“The BoJ will also release its monetary policy statement at some point. Ironically, it will be arguing that despite a mixed data picture (some strong data, but others still worryingly weak – see the trade deficit today, or the real earnings index) it doesn’t need more QE”.

“All in all, central banks (and the Thai army) “have some ‘splainin to do” to help markets find their way through the maze that is the new normal”.