Norges Bank: Still no more than 10bps of rate hikes forecasted – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities point out that the Norges Bank left its policy rate on hold in its last meeting and also left its policy rate path essentially unchanged, with just a couple of bps of upgrades from H2 2021 onwards.

Key Quotes

“Overall there's still no more than 10bps of rate hikes forecasted anytime out to the end of 2022.”

“Developments since the last MPR seem to have broadly balanced each other out: "A weaker-than-projected krone implies in isolation a higher policy rate path. On the other hand, the upturn in the Norwegian economy appears to be a little more moderate than previously assumed."

“The recent weakness of the krone had a fairly large impact on the policy rate forecasts (+15bps at the end of 2020), essentially balancing out the slowdown in demand (-18bps in the same period). There were small, positive contributions from oil prices and the money market premium, and about 6-7bps of judgment was applied through most of 2020 to prevent the policy rate forecasts from rising.”