Prospects for global economic recovery look bleak – Reuters poll

The latest Reuters survey of more than 250 economists over the past few weeks showed that the clouds over the global economic recovery have darkened again, with a V-shaped recovery unlikely on the cards.

Key findings

“Recessions in most major economies would be deeper this year than previously predicted.

Almost three-quarters of economists, 69 of 94, who answered an additional question said the recovery would be either U-shaped, with a prolonged trough, or like a tick mark where the speed of the recovery is not as quick as the drop-off.

Only 15 respondents predicted a strong, V-shaped recovery. The others said it would be W-shaped, where a vigorous rebound result in another sharp slump, or L-shaped where the economy flatlines after the downturn.

The world economy is now forecast to shrink 3.2% this year vs. a 2.0% contraction predicted in the April 23 Reuters poll.

No economist polled expected growth in 2020, with forecasts in a -0.3% to -6.7% range. The outlook under a worst-case scenario was -6.0%, with those in a -3.0% to -15.0% range.

Forecasts for global economic growth tended to range from 2.3% to 3.6% before the pandemic struck.”